NZ Property Market: A Good Time to Buy?
Wondering if March 2025 is the moment to buy a property in New Zealand? The market’s picking up a bit, but it’s not exactly a mad scramble. As mortgage advisors, we are looking at the market daily. —here’s what we’re seeing
Market Snapshot
House prices are inching up—1.4% in February, averaging 0.2% monthly over the last three months—but they’re still about 14% below their 2021 peak. Sales are up 13% to 72,500 a year, and there’s a decent stock of listings, especially in Auckland, which gives buyers the upper hand. Surveys show a net 6% of folks are cutting back on home-buying plans, and there’s little panic about missing out—people aren’t rushing in.
Interest Rates and Finance
Borrowing’s getting a tad easier. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is at 3.75%, likely dropping to 3.5% come April. Two-year fixed rates at 4.99% are current the most popular fixed rate choice of our clients. Shorter terms, like 6-18 months, might nudge down a bit more in 2025 if the OCR hits 3.25%. But there are no guarantees—global headaches like US tariffs could keep rates from falling much further. And we’re wary of rising business costs pushing rates up in late 2025, if the economy picks up.
Supply and Demand
There’s no shortage of properties—listings are at their highest in a decade, giving you plenty to pick from. Demand’s growing, with first-time buyers and investors dipping their toes back in, but it’s hardly frantic. Net migration’s down to 32,500 from 135,000 in 2023, taking some heat off demand. New builds are keeping pace with long-term averages too, so don’t expect wild price jumps anytime soon.
What Other Experts Say
Independent economists are split. Some, like Tony Alexander, reckon long-term growth could settle at 5.5-6% a year, while others, like Cameron Bagrie, urge caution, pointing to shaky exports and jobs.
Our Property Market View
March 2025 offers steady prices, high supply, and improving interest rates. It’s a good time for selective buyers to find a good deal without pressure. We don’t expect a sudden boom but there is room for moderate growth if the economy can be less bad. There are hundreds of micro markets across NZ, not one big one, so take your time to understand your local market, and find a place that ticks most boxes— we’d love for you to find a property that ticks all the boxes but all property purchases are about compromise.
Final Thoughts
NZ’s property market’s is a buyers market now, with a slight upward trajectory. Migration’s drop and steady housing supply keep are keeping things calm, and interest rates and incomes will be key moving forward. Need advice? Get in touch, and in one conversation with us, you are effectively talking to 20+ lenders.